Uncertainty quantification of overpressure buildup through inverse modeling of compaction processes in sedimentary basins     

Ivo Colombo  Giovanni M. Porta  Paolo Ruffo  Alberto Guadagnini 《Hydrogeology Journal》2017,25(2):385-403

This study illustrates a procedure conducive to a preliminary risk analysis of overpressure development in sedimentary basins characterized by alternating depositional events of sandstone and shale layers. The approach rests on two key elements: (1) forward modeling of fluid flow and compaction, and (2) application of a model-complexity reduction technique based on a generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE). The forward model considers a one-dimensional vertical compaction processes. The gPCE model is then used in an inverse modeling context to obtain efficient model parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification. The methodology is applied to two field settings considered in previous literature works, i.e. the Venture Field (Scotian Shelf, Canada) and the Navarin Basin (Bering Sea, Alaska, USA), relying on available porosity and pressure information for model calibration. It is found that the best result is obtained when porosity and pressure data are considered jointly in the model calibration procedure. Uncertainty propagation from unknown input parameters to model outputs, such as pore pressure vertical distribution, is investigated and quantified. This modeling strategy enables one to quantify the relative importance of key phenomena governing the feedback between sediment compaction and fluid flow processes and driving the buildup of fluid overpressure in stratified sedimentary basins characterized by the presence of low-permeability layers. The results here illustrated (1) allow for diagnosis of the critical role played by the parameters of quantitative formulations linking porosity and permeability in compacted shales and (2) provide an explicit and detailed quantification of the effects of their uncertainty in field settings.  相似文献   

Seismic performance of masonry walls retrofitted with steel reinforced grout          下载免费PDF全文

Stefano De Santis  Paolo Casadei  Gerardo De Canio  Gianmarco de Felice  Marialaura Malena  Marialuisa Mongelli  Ivan Roselli 《地震工程与结构动力学》2016,45(2):229-251

An innovative solution for the seismic protection of existing masonry structures is proposed and investigated through shake table tests on a natural scale wall assemblage. After a former test series carried out without reinforcement, the specimen was retrofitted using Steel Reinforced Grout. The strengthening system comprises horizontal strips of ultra‐high strength steel cords, externally bonded to the masonry with hydraulic lime mortar, and connectors to transversal walls, applied within the thickness of the plaster layer. In order to assess the seismic performance of the retrofitted wall, natural accelerograms were applied with increasing intensity up to failure. Test results provide a deep understanding of the effectiveness of mortar‐based composites for improving the out‐of‐plane seismic capacity of masonry walls, in comparison with traditional reinforcements with steel tie‐bars. The structural implications of the proposed solution in terms of dynamic properties and damage development under earthquake loads are also discussed.Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Sediment yield of the lower Tana River,Kenya, is insensitive to dam construction: sediment mobilization processes in a semi‐arid tropical river system          下载免费PDF全文

Naomi Geeraert  Fred Ochieng Omengo  Fredrick Tamooh  Paolo Paron  Steven Bouillon  Gerard Govers 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2015,40(13):1827-1838

Dam construction in the 1960s to 1980s significantly modified sediment supply from the Kenyan uplands to the lower Tana River. To assess the effect on suspended sediment fluxes of the Tana River, we monitored the sediment load at high temporal resolution for 1 year and complemented our data with historical information. The relationship between sediment concentration and water discharge was complex: at the onset of the wet season, discharge peaks resulted in high sediment concentrations and counterclockwise hysteresis, while towards the end of the wet season, a sediment exhaustion effect led to low concentrations despite the high discharge. The total sediment flux at Garissa (c. 250 km downstream of the lowermost dam) between June 2012 and June 2013 was 8.8 Mt yr^‐1. Comparison of current with historical fluxes indicated that dam construction had not greatly affected the annual sediment flux. We suggest that autogenic processes, namely river bed dynamics and bank erosion, mobilized large quantities of sediments stored in the alluvial plain downstream of the dams. Observations supporting the importance of autogenic processes included the absence of measurable activities of the fall‐out radionuclides ⁷Be and ¹³⁷Cs in the suspended sediment, the rapid lateral migration of the river course, and the seasonal changes in river cross‐section. Given the large stock of sediment in the alluvial valley of the Tana River, it may take centuries before the effect of damming shows up as a quantitative reduction in the sediment flux at Garissa. Many models relate the sediment load of rivers to catchment characteristics, thereby implicitly assuming that alterations in the catchment induce changes in the sediment load. Our research confirms that the response of an alluvial river to external disturbances such as land use or climate change is often indirect or non‐existent as autogenic processes overwhelm the changes in the input signal. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A comparison of wetness indices for the prediction of observed connected saturated areas under contrasting conditions   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Geneviève Ali  Christian Birkel  Doerthe Tetzlaff  Chris Soulsby  Jeffrey J. McDonnell  Paolo Tarolli 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(3):399-413

For lack of other widely available spatial information, topography is often used to predict water fluxes and water quality in mesoscale watersheds. Such data have however proven to be misleading in many environments where large and flat valley bottoms and/or highly conducive soil covers determine water storage and water transport mechanisms. Also, the focus is generally on the prediction of saturation areas regardless of whether they are connected to the catchment hydrographic network or rather present in isolated topographic depressions. Here soil information was coupled with terrain data towards the targeted prediction of connected saturated areas. The focus was on the 30 km² Girnock catchment (Cairngorm Mountains, northeast Scotland) and its 3 km² sub‐catchment, Bruntland Burn in which seven field surveys were done to capture actual maps of connected saturated areas in both dry and humid conditions. The 1 km² resolution UK Hydrology of Soil Types (HOST) classification was used to extract relevant, spatially variable, soil parameters. Results show that connected saturated areas were fairly well predicted by wetness indices but only in wet conditions when they covered more than 30% of the whole catchment area. Geomorphic indices including information on terrain shape, steepness, aspect, soil texture and soil depth showed potential but generally performed poorly. Indices based on soil and topographic data did not have more predictive power than those based on topographic information only: this was attributed to the coarse resolution of the HOST classification. Nevertheless, analyses provided interesting insights into the scale‐dependent water storage and transport mechanisms in both study catchments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Paleoflood events recorded by speleothems in caves          下载免费PDF全文

Fernando Gázquez  José María Calaforra  Paolo Forti  Heather Stoll  Bassam Ghaleb  Antonio Delgado‐Huertas 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(10):1345-1353

Speleothems are usually composed of thin layers of calcite (or aragonite). However, cemented detrital materials interlayered between laminae of speleothemic carbonate have been also observed in many caves. Flowstones comprising discontinuous carbonate layers form due to flowing water films, while flood events introduce fluviokarstic sediments in caves that, on occasion, are recorded as clayey layers inside flowstones and stalagmites. This record provides a potential means of understanding the frequency of palaeofloods using cave records. In this work, we investigate the origin of this type of detrital deposit in El Soplao Cave (Northern Spain). The age of the lowest aragonite layer of a flowstone reveals that the earliest flood period occurred before 500 ka, though most of the flowstone formed between 422 +69/‐43 ka and 400 +66/‐42 ka. This suggests that the cave was periodically affected by palaeoflood events that introduced detrital sediments from the surface as a result of occasional extreme rainfall events, especially at around 400 ka. The mineralogical data enable an evolutionary model for this flowstone to be generated based on the alternation of flood events with laminar flows and carbonate layers precipitation that can be extrapolated to other caves in which detrital sediments inside speleothems have been found. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Performance of masonry buildings during the Emilia 2012 earthquake   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Andrea Penna  Paolo Morandi  Maria Rota  Carlo Filippo Manzini  Francesca da Porto  Guido Magenes 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(5):2255-2273

The earthquake sequence started on May \(20\) th 2012 in Emilia (Italy) affected a region where masonry constructions represent a large part of the existing building stock and the construction of new modern masonry buildings is a common practice. The paper is focused on the performance of common architectural configurations, typical for residential or business use. The large majority of old masonry buildings is made of fired clay bricks. The seismic performance of these buildings is particularly interesting since major past earthquakes in Italy affected areas with mainly stone masonry structures. Apart from examples showing systematic or peculiar structural deficiencies governing the vulnerability of several buildings, the overall seismic performance of these structures to repeated shaking, with PGA as large as 0.25–0.3 g was rather good, despite the major part of them were only conceived for carrying vertical loads. In fact, seismic design is mandatory in the area only since 2003. Modern low-rise masonry buildings erected after this date and incorporating seismic design and proper detailing resulted in most cases practically undamaged. The examples reported in the paper allow an evaluation of the superior performance of seismically designed modern masonry buildings in comparison to older ones.  相似文献   

2012 Emilia earthquake,Italy: reinforced concrete buildings response   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Gaetano Manfredi  Andrea Prota  Gerardo Mario Verderame  Flavia De Luca  Paolo Ricci 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(5):2275-2298

Data of the Italian National Institute of Statistics are collected aimed at characterizing Reinforced Concrete (RC) building stock of the area struck by the 2012 Emilia earthquake (number of storeys, age of construction, structural typology). Damage observations, collected right after the event in reconnaissance reports, are shown and analyzed emphasizing typical weaknesses of RC buildings in the area. The evolution of seismic classification for Emilia region and RC buildings’ main characteristics represent the input data for the assessment of non-structural damage of infilled RC buildings, through a simplified approach (FAST method), based on EMS-98 damage scale. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) capacities for the first three damage states of EMS-98 are compared with registered PGA in the epicentral area. Observed damage and damage states evaluated for the PGA of the event, in the epicentral area, are finally compared. The comparison led to a fair agreement between observed and numerical data.  相似文献   

A review of EU bio-economic models for fisheries: The value of a diversity of models     

Raúl Prellezo  Paolo AccadiaJesper L. Andersen  Bo S. AndersenErik Buisman  Alyson LittleJ. Rasmus Nielsen  Jan Jaap PoosJeff Powell  Christine Röckmann 《Marine Policy》2012,36(2):423-431

The lessons learned from a review of thirteen existing European bio-economic models used in the evaluation of EU policies are presented. How these models compare and differ in terms of their biological and economic components, the integration between the components, which indicators are selected and how they are used, are described and analysed. The article concludes that the multitude of construction differences reflects the necessity of adapting the modelling approach to answer different questions. Since real life questions in fisheries are so diverse, answering them requires a diversity of models.  相似文献   

Comparing models of debris-flow susceptibility in the alpine environment   总被引：12，自引：3，他引：9  

Alberto Carrara  Giovanni Crosta  Paolo Frattini   《Geomorphology》2008,94(3-4):353

Debris-flows are widespread in Val di Fassa (Trento Province, Eastern Italian Alps) where they constitute one of the most dangerous gravity-induced surface processes. From a large set of environmental characteristics and a detailed inventory of debris flows, we developed five models to predict location of debris-flow source areas. The models differ in approach (statistical vs. physically-based) and type of terrain unit of reference (slope unit vs. grid cell). In the statistical models, a mix of several environmental factors classified areas with different debris-flow susceptibility; however, the factors that exert a strong discriminant power reduce to conditions of high slope-gradient, pasture or no vegetation cover, availability of detrital material, and active erosional processes. Since slope and land use are also used in the physically-based approach, all model results are largely controlled by the same leading variables.Overlaying susceptibility maps produced by the different methods (statistical vs. physically-based) for the same terrain unit of reference (grid cell) reveals a large difference, nearly 25% spatial mismatch. The spatial discrepancy exceeds 30% for susceptibility maps generated by the same method (discriminant analysis) but different terrain units (slope unit vs. grid cell). The size of the terrain unit also led to different susceptibility maps (almost 20% spatial mismatch). Maps based on different statistical tools (discriminant analysis vs. logistic regression) differed least (less than 10%). Hence, method and terrain unit proved to be equally important in mapping susceptibility.Model performance was evaluated from the percentages of terrain units that each model correctly classifies, the number of debris-flow falling within the area classified as unstable by each model, and through the metric of ROC curves. Although all techniques implemented yielded results essentially comparable; the discriminant model based on the partition of the study area into small slope units may constitute the most suitable approach to regional debris-flow assessment in the Alpine environment.  相似文献   

Climatic control on the growth of gigantic gypsum crystals within hypogenic caves (Naica mine,Mexico)?     

Paolo S. Garofalo  Mattias B. Fricker  Detlef Günther  Paolo Forti  Anna-Maria Mercuri  Mara Loreti  Bruno Capaccioni 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2010,289(3-4):560-569

Three hypogenic caves within the Naica mine of Mexico (Cueva de los Cristales — CLC, Ojo de la Reina — OR, and Cueva de las Velas — CLV) host spectacular gypsum crystals up to 11 m in length. These caves are close to another shallow cave of the area (Cueva de las Espadas — CLE), with which they cover a 160 m-deep vertical section of the local drainage basin. Similar to other hypogenic caves, all these caves lack a direct connection with the land surface and should be unrelated with climate.A record of multi-technique fluid inclusion data and pollen spectra from cave and mine gypsum indicates surprisingly that climatic changes occurring at Naica could have controlled fluid composition in these caves, and hence crystal growth. Microthermometry and LA-ICP-Mass Spectrometry of fluid inclusions indicate that the shallow, chemically peculiar, saline fluid (up to 7.7 eq. wt.%NaCl) of CLE could have formed from evaporation, during a dry and hot climatic period. The fluid of the deep caves was instead of low salinity (～ 3.5 eq. wt.% NaCl) and chemically homogeneous, and was poorly affected by evaporation. We propose that mixing of these two fluids, generated at different depths of the Naica drainage basin, determined the stable supersaturation conditions for the gigantic gypsum crystals to grow. Fluid mixing was controlled by the hydraulic communication between CLE and the other deep caves, and must have taken place during cycles of warm-dry and fresh-wet climatic periods, which are known to have occurred in the region. Pollen grains from a 35 ka-old gypsum crystal of CLC corresponds to a fairly homogenous catchment basin made of a mixed broadleaf wet forest, which suggests precipitation during a fresh-wet climatic period and confirms our interpretation of the fluid inclusion data.The unusual combination of geological and geochemical factors of Naica suggests that other hypogenic caves found elsewhere may not host similar crystals. However, this work shows that fluid inclusions and pollen spectra represent a useful tool for cave studies in general, and if used in future studies might be essential to unravel the mechanisms of hypogenic deposition.  相似文献